Shamus Award

Article source: Racing and Sports, Monday 3 February 2014

Cox Plate victor Shamus Award has been removed as the Australian Guineas favourite following Bull Point’s victory in the Manfred Stakes over the weekend but the big question remains why?

Since 1970, 131 three-year-olds have contested the Group 1 Cox Plate with just eight (6.1%) winning and a further 21 running second or third.

Abdul(1970), Surround (1976),Red Ancho (1984), Taj Rossi (1973), Octagonal  (1995),Savabeel  (2004),So You Think  (2009) and Shamus Award  (2013) are the only gallopers who have proven successful in this time.

While some may have a question mark over Shamus Award’s victory, the likelihood it was a fluke is highly doubtful given the strong history against three-year-olds and when measured against those who have proceeded to fail in the past (All Too Hard , Pierro, Helmet, Samantha Miss) it is clear he is well above average.

More notably if you take a line through his Cox Plate victory, he defeated the Melbourne Cup winner (Fiorente), the Turnbull Stakes victor (Happy Trails), the Mackinnon Stakes victor (Side Glance) and the Makybe Diva stakes victor (Foreteller) a strong push for the strength of the form out of the weight-for-age feature.

On Timeform ratings Shamus Award recorded a figure of 124 in the Cox Plate which as it stands sees him rated the top three-year-old in the country and 12 pounds clear of current Australian Guineas favourite Bull Point.

To place that into perspective if the race were to be run this Saturday and both horses were measured to be run up to their career peak, Shamus Award would effectively win by close to four lengths depending on the going/tempo.

Set to resume in the Group 1 Orr Stakes on Saturday, a sense of déjà vu also arises given we saw All Too Hard follow the exact same path last year only to be scratched the morning of the Australian Guineas when the long-odds on favourite.

With as much as 8-1 to being offered about the son of Snitzel in early markets it seems a more than fair gamble as with all going to script he will more than likely start favourite and more notably prove very hard to beat.